Exponential Risk is InsTech’s monthly newsletter dedicated to modelling, climate driven risk and near term forecasting insurance news.
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The Brief
One of the pleasures of being involved in catastrophe modelling and exposure management for a long time is to meet so many very smart people who are willing to share their observations and research in a collaborative way, albeit willing to disagree and debate what are often subjective decisions and having to deal with uncertainty. A very good friend of InsTech with these characteristics, who very generously spoke on stage at our event in Google’s offices in New York recently, is Paul Carroll.
Paul writes a weekly newsletter and often gives a fresh or timely perspective on issues related to extreme perils, property and insurance. This week his focus is on changes planned for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) by the US government – as Paul says “I’ve been waiting and watching to try to understand what’s going on and how it might affect insurers that provide coverage for disasters, and I think two things have finally become clear. One is good for insurers. One is bad for them. Both are bad for homeowners and other policyholders.” If you are as unclear about the breadth of FEMA’s responsibility as appears to be David Richardson (acting head of FEMA), I recommend Paul’s article and its associated links.
Latest from InsTech
Exponential Risk News
Estimated insured losses from Australia, NSW floods exceed $1.95 billion USD
Declared an “Insurance Catastrophe” by the Insurance Council of Australia, the event triggered over 7,300 claims following widespread riverine flooding. JBA Risk Management has released an event footprint and preliminary loss estimate using its Australia Inland Flood Model.
Severe weather drives multi-billion dollar losses in May
Convective storms across the US caused widespread damage, with additional impacts from wildfires in Canada and severe weather globally, according to Aon.
CatIQ estimates $294 million USD in insured losses from March ice storm
Second industry loss estimate reflects personal and auto claim development following prolonged freezing rain in Ontario and Quebec.
TSR increases its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast
Revised outlook includes 16 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, with three projected US landfalls.
Previsico survey finds UK businesses lacking flood preparedness
The recent report shows fewer than 30% of firms have flood plans, despite growing exposure to surface water and extreme weather risks.
Industry Updates
Fathom adds future climate scenarios to global flood catastrophe model
“Flooding is a ubiquitous peril and one which will change in the future – in many places getting worse. The ability to model and assess not just the current risk to a portfolio but also the future risk for all major forms of flooding with a flexible set of climate options enables insurers to better plan, assess long term projects and to satisfy regulatory requirements.”
– Olivia Sloan, Product Manager, Global Flood Cat
HIBRiD and RDT launch carbon-neutral claims platform
The platform combines AI automation with carbon-neutral operations to support claims processing and sustainability goals for the London Market.
Cytora integrates wildfire risk data from Aisix Solutions
The partnership adds Aisix’s AI-based wildfire models to Cytora’s platform, supporting underwriting amid evolving climate disclosure standards.
Start Network and Aon launch reinsurance to expand climate crisis funding
The insurance product develops Start Ready’s capacity to maintain early funding for multiple climate risks, improving financial resilience and support for vulnerable communities.
DUAL launches insurance products to protect real estate assets
The Energy Efficiency Retrofit and Environmental Investment Protection products aim to enhance investment confidence and manage climate-related risks in property markets.
Tokio Marine launches GX business to support green transition
The underwriting unit offers insurance and risk solutions for businesses advancing decarbonisation and sustainable initiatives globally.
Moody’s Hurricane Model v25 certified for Florida rate filings
The latest version incorporates new hurricane loss data and aligns with updated inland flood model; certified for regulatory use through 2027.
