Exponential Risk is InsTech’s monthly newsletter dedicated to modelling, climate driven risk and near term forecasting insurance news.
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The Brief
You may notice we’re bringing you a new flavour to our newsletter this week. Exponential Risk is expanding beyond our 2-day event in March to cover all of the climate, catastrophe and property news that we think you’ll want to know each month.
We have also launched a new dedicated section of our website to connect this community year-round through focused content, events and insights. You can view and bookmark here.
Our newsletters are still free, but it looks like some of the data that modellers and insurers have been relying on for free for many years may no longer be available. In the US, NOAA has announced that its extreme weather database will not be maintained going forward, according to CNN. It’s possible that other US government-sponsored initiatives such as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) or the USGS (US Geological Survey), which provides detailed information on earthquake activity, may experience changes in funding.
Costs may increase to access the data, but we are already hearing of commercial alternatives to complement or replace some of the NOAA resources. More to follow.
Latest from InsTech
Exponential Risk News
Q1 2025 insured losses exceed $53 billion USD
Aon reports that wildfires in California accounted for 71% of first-quarter insured losses, with global economic losses reaching at least $83 billion USD and multiple events surpassing the billion-dollar threshold.
Swiss Re forecasts 2025 insured nat cat losses to reach $145 billion
Global insured losses in 2024 totalled $137 billion USD, with SCS, hurricanes and urban flooding driving costs. 2024 economic losses reached $318 billion USD, leaving a protection gap of $181 billion USD.
South and Midwest USA floods linked to April atmospheric river
A Category 5 atmospheric river in early April brought prolonged rainfall and flooding across seven states, with preliminary insured losses estimated between $1-3 billion USD, according to JBA Risk Management.
$342 million CAD in insured losses from March 2025 ice storm
Estimated by CatIQ, the event caused prolonged freezing rain in Ontario and Quebec, resulting in infrastructure and property damage across affected areas.
PERILS revises Windstorm Éowyn loss estimate to €696 million
High winds across Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland in January caused widespread property damage, with Éowyn now recorded as the largest insured loss of the 2024/25 European windstorm season.
UK wildfire activity exceeds early-year averages in 2025
Over 24,000 hectares have burned across 115 incidents since January, with dry spring conditions contributing to increased fire occurrence and pressure on emergency services.
Industry Updates
Aon introduces framework for management of SCS exposure
The five-step approach is designed to help insurers address rising severe convective storm losses through portfolio-level analysis, claims benchmarking and model-agnostic hazard tools.
IDF releases open-access risk modelling tools
The suite includes global exposure data, scenario modelling workflows and parametric insurance resources to support risk understanding and resilience-building across public and private sectors.
PRA outlines updated climate risk expectations for insurers
Consultation Paper CP10/25 proposes enhanced guidance on governance, risk management, scenario analysis and disclosures to align firms’ practices with evolving climate-related financial risks.
Dr. Robert Muir-Wood receives Professional Geography Award
Recognised for contributions to catastrophe risk modelling, Dr. Muir-Wood was awarded for advancing the application of geography in professional practice by the Royal Geographical Society.
